The article at HotAir by David Strom titled “Two Intelligence Failures in a Week?” highlights significant lapses by the U.S. Intelligence Community, particularly in their failure to anticipate the collapse of the Syrian government to ISIS and Al Qaeda rebels, and the constitutional crisis in South Korea. These events underscore the critical need for recalibrating the focus of U.S. intelligence resources toward international threats.
One would think that our Intelligence Community would have had an idea that the Syrian government might soon be overwhelmed by ISIS and al Qaeda rebels or that South Korea was on the brink of a Constitutional crisis.
Yet, as far as I can tell, both events were a complete surprise to the United States of America.
Given that the United States is deeply involved in the Middle East and in Syria in particular, you would imagine that the collapse of the front lines in the civil war might be considered a big enough deal to have been anticipated by somebody. And given that the United States has more than 28,000 troops and is still technically a participant in a war between North and South Korea, you would expect that we might have a better-than-average insight into Korean politics.
If your thinking went in this direction, you would have been wrong. From all accounts, the US was caught off guard in both cases.
Confirmation of Intelligence Community Assessment:
Firstly, the unexpected nature of these events in Syria and South Korea reflects a broader issue of intelligence gathering and analysis. If these developments indeed blindsided the Intelligence Community, it suggests a potential misallocation of attention, resources, or both. The unpredictability of such pivotal geopolitical events not only endangers U.S. strategic interests but also undermines the global stability that the U.S. strives to maintain.
Syria’s Overwhelm by ISIS and Al Qaeda: The rise of these groups to the extent that they could challenge or collapse a national government was a failure in anticipating the speed and scale of insurgent movements. This oversight could severely impact regional stability and counter-terrorism efforts, directly impacting U.S. security.
South Korea’s Constitutional Crisis: A constitutional crisis in a major ally like South Korea, which sits at a critical geopolitical juncture due to its proximity to North Korea, should have been on the radar of U.S. intelligence. The U.S. has significant military and economic interests in the region, making this an area where intelligence failure could lead to strategic missteps.
Importance of Focusing Federal Assets on International Threats:
National Security: The primary function of intelligence agencies is to safeguard national security. With rising global tensions, terrorism, and the potential for aggressive actions by state actors like China or Russia, U.S. intelligence must prioritize international surveillance and analysis to preempt threats.
Resource Allocation: Given the finite resources available, focusing on international threats means reevaluating current intelligence priorities. The U.S. should ensure that the bulk of its intelligence capabilities are directed towards understanding the dynamics of international actors, especially those with the potential to disrupt global peace or directly challenge U.S. interests.
Alliance Stability: The U.S.’s ability to anticipate and respond to crises in allied nations like South Korea directly affects the credibility and effectiveness of its international alliances. A failure to foresee or manage such crises can lead to a weakening of these alliances, which are pivotal in international diplomacy and security.
Preventive Action: By concentrating intelligence efforts on international threats, the U.S. can engage in preventive diplomacy or military strategy, potentially averting conflicts or mitigating their impact. Early warning systems and intelligence sharing become crucial in this context.
In conclusion, the incidents covered in the article by Strom serve as a stark reminder of the necessity for a robust, internationally-focused intelligence apparatus. The U.S. must prioritize its intelligence capabilities to ensure it can anticipate, understand, and react to global threats, thereby protecting its interests and those of its allies in an increasingly complex world order.