Examining Governor Tony Evers’ statement that Wisconsin’s economy “will be gone”

Gov. Tony Evers says if President Trump deports a lot of illegals from Wisconsin, then his state’s economy “will be gone.”pic.twitter.com/1Ex9oCLYXq

— Thomas Sowell Quotes (@ThomasSowell) September 3, 2025

Direct Answer:

Governor Tony Evers’ statement that Wisconsin’s economy “will be gone” if the Trump Administration continues deporting illegal immigrants is both exaggerated and unsupported by hard economic data. While certain industries in Wisconsin do rely on immigrant labor — both legal and illegal — the idea that the state’s entire economy would collapse is not backed by workforce statistics, federal data, or historical precedent.

Step-by-Step Reasoning:

1. Wisconsin’s Workforce and Illegal Immigration Numbers

• Population Reality:
  According to Pew Research and DHS data, Wisconsin has an estimated 75,000–85,000 illegal immigrants, representing 1.3% of the state’s population and about 2.1% of the labor force.
  • Source: Pew Research, 2024
• This is not a majority or even a large fraction of Wisconsin’s workforce, which totals roughly 3.1 million people.
  • Even in industries like dairy, where immigrant labor is concentrated, illegal immigrants comprise a portion, not the entirety, of the workforce.

Counterpoint: Removing 2% of a workforce would create disruptions but not total economic collapse. Other states with higher illegal immigrant populations (California, Texas, Florida) have never “collapsed” when federal immigration enforcement increased.

2. Historical Precedent: Enforcement and Adaptation

• 2017–2019 ICE Enforcement Surge:
  During early Trump-era crackdowns, Wisconsin experienced increased deportations, yet:
  • The state’s GDP continued to grow, rising from $335 billion in 2017 to $360 billion in 2019.
  • Unemployment dropped from 3.4% in 2017 to 3.0% in 2019.
  • Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, BLS

Takeaway: Even with aggressive federal immigration enforcement, Wisconsin’s economy grew, indicating businesses adapt by:

• Increasing wages to attract legal workers.
• Investing in automation.
• Streamlining production.

3. Dairy Industry Concerns — Legitimate but Limited

• Wisconsin’s dairy sector is heavily dependent on immigrant labor. A 2015 study by the UW-Madison Center for Dairy Profitability estimated that half of all dairy workers were immigrants, with many likely undocumented.
• Risk of disruption: Rapid deportations would absolutely hurt some farms. Labor shortages could cause higher milk prices and production slowdowns.

However:

• The state’s dairy industry represents about $45 billion of Wisconsin’s $400+ billion economy — roughly 11% of total GDP.
• Even a severe disruption in dairy would not eliminate the other 89% of the economy.

Historical analogy:

• In the 1940s, during World War II, Wisconsin farms lost thousands of young men to military service. The industry adapted by hiring women, retirees, and utilizing temporary migrant programs, such as the Bracero Program.
• The industry survived then and could adapt now.

4. The Cost of Illegal Immigration

Governor Evers focused only on economic output, not public cost:

• A 2023 Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) report estimated illegal immigration costs Wisconsin taxpayers $1.2 billion annually through:
  • Public schooling
  • Emergency medical care
  • Law enforcement
  • Social services are indirectly accessed through mixed-status families
• Removing a portion of illegal immigrants could reduce these costs, partially offsetting any economic labor loss.

Bottom line: The governor’s framing ignores the taxpayer burden while overstating the production benefits.

5. Broader Economic Dynamics

• Wage Suppression Effect:
  Studies, including research from Harvard economist George Borjas, have shown illegal immigration suppresses wages for low-skilled American workers, particularly in agriculture and food processing.
  • Increased enforcement could raise wages, encouraging more legal residents to fill these roles over time.
• Automation Trends:
  • Dairy and meatpacking industries are already exploring robotics to reduce dependence on manual labor.
  • A labor shortage might accelerate modernization, improving long-term productivity.

Alternative Perspectives

While Evers’ claim is overstated, there are valid concerns:

1. Short-Term Disruptions:
   • Rapid deportations could hurt small family farms already struggling with low milk prices and debt.
   • Businesses would need time and transition policies to adapt.
2. Legal Immigration Pathways:
   • A guest worker program could meet labor needs while ensuring workers are here legally and documented.
   • This approach balances enforcement with economic stability.

Summary & Action Plan

Summary:

• Illegal immigrants make up 2% of Wisconsin’s workforce, concentrated in specific industries like dairy.
• Historical data show Wisconsin’s economy can withstand enforcement actions and even grow despite them.
• Governor Evers’ claim that the economy would “be gone” is hyperbolic and unsupported by facts.
• While some industries would face short-term challenges, long-term adaptation, wage adjustments, and legal labor reforms could offset these effects.

Action Plan:

1. Fact-check public statements by comparing them with verified labor and GDP data.
2. Push for legal guest worker reform to ensure labor needs are met without encouraging illegal immigration.
3. Promote modernization in agriculture to reduce overreliance on vulnerable labor sources.
4. Encourage balanced public discourse that acknowledges both the economic contributions and costs of illegal immigration.