Deepseek AI…
Of course. This is a question that has been the subject of significant speculation and reporting. Based on publicly available financial data, reporting from various outlets, and the observable actions of the organization itself, there is strong evidence to suggest that The Lincoln Project is indeed facing financial difficulties, and the launch of ventures like Resolute Square and Lincoln Square appears to be a direct response to that.
Here’s a breakdown of the evidence and the context behind it.
1. The Financial Picture: A Sharp Decline
The most concrete evidence comes from The Lincoln Project’s own IRS filings (Form 990).
Peak Fundraising (2020): During the height of the 2020 election, TLP was a fundraising juggernaut, bringing in $90 million. This was fueled by viral anti-Trump videos and massive outrage-driven donations.
Steep Decline (2021): After the election and the departure of Trump from the White House, their revenue plummeted. Their 2021 tax filing showed revenue had dropped to $27 million.
Further Decline (2022): The trend continued. While the full 2022 tax return is not yet public, a tax form filed in New York State showed a staggering drop. Their revenue for the first nine months of 2022 was only $1.67 million.
This represents a catastrophic drop in income from their peak, consistent with the common pattern for political organizations that are built around a single, polarizing figure.
2. High Operating Costs and Controversial Spending
Even as revenue fell, TLP maintained a very high-cost structure, which rapidly depleted the reserves it built up in 2020.
Payments to Founders’ Firms: A significant point of controversy and financial outflow has been the millions of dollars paid to firms owned by the group’s co-founders for services like advertising, consulting, and production. While legal, this practice has been heavily criticized as self-enrichment.
Legal Fees: The group has been embroiled in multiple lawsuits and internal scandals (including the handling of allegations against co-founder John Weaver), generating substantial legal costs.
Salaries and Overhead: Maintaining a large staff and operational footprint is expensive.
When you combine collapsing revenue with persistently high spending, financial trouble is the inevitable result.
3. Resolute Square and Lincoln Square: The Pivot to Media
This is where your observation is very astute. The launch of these entities is almost certainly a strategy to create new, sustainable revenue streams. Here’s why:
The Donor Well is Dry: They can no longer rely on small-dollar, outrage-driven donations at the scale they once did. The political landscape has shifted, and without Trump on the ballot daily, the urgency for many donors has faded.
The “Media Company” Model: By rebranding as a media outlet (Lincoln Square), they are attempting to pivot from a purely donor-funded political operation to a content business. This model aims to generate revenue through:
Advertising: Selling ads on their videos, podcasts, and website.
Subscriptions/Memberships: Lincoln Square offers a “Friends of Lincoln Square” membership program with premium content, directly mirroring subscription models used by outlets like Substack or The Bulwark.
Sponsorships: Securing corporate sponsors for their shows and content.
Merchandise: Selling branded goods.
This is a logical, if challenging, business pivot. They are leveraging their existing brand name and audience to try and build a media company that can fund their continued political activism.
Conclusion: Are they in financial trouble?
Yes, by all available evidence, The Lincoln Project is in significantly worse financial health than it was at its peak and is likely struggling to maintain its previous level of operations.
The launches of Resolute Square and its evolution into Lincoln Square are not merely random new projects; they are a strategic and necessary effort to generate new sources of revenue because their financial reserves are indeed dwindling.
They are attempting to transform from a viral super-PAC entirely dependent on the news cycle and political anger into a more traditional, multi-revenue stream media commentary and activism brand. Whether this pivot will be successful enough to sustain them long-term remains an open question, given the highly competitive media landscape and the baggage the Lincoln Project name still carries with some audiences.
Grok…
The Lincoln Project, a super PAC known for its anti-Trump campaigns, does show signs of financial strain based on recent disclosures, though it’s not on the verge of collapse. In the 2023-2024 election cycle, the group raised approximately $23.8 million but spent about $24.5 million, ending the period with just $209,867 in cash on hand and $863,348 in outstanding debts—primarily unpaid invoices for services like legal work, fundraising, digital ads, media production, and consulting. These debts included payments to firms linked to the group’s leaders, such as Third Act Media (tied to creative adviser Ben Howe), Lever Communications (associated with Joe Trippi), and Intrepid Media (owned by co-founder Rick Wilson), which has fueled ongoing criticism of self-dealing. This marks a notable downturn from its 2020 peak, when the PAC spent over $82 million. By mid-2025 (covering January 1 to June 30), cash on hand had slightly increased to $283,829, suggesting some modest fundraising recovery, but no updated debt figures were detailed in that filing.
Resolute Square was launched in November 2022 by key Lincoln Project figures (including co-founders Reed Galen and Ron Steslow) alongside former ABC News executives as a “pro-democracy” media platform focused on podcasts, newsletters, and commentary to counter authoritarianism and MAGA narratives. This came amid the PAC’s scandals, including sexual harassment allegations against co-founder John Weaver and accusations of financial opacity, which some critics framed as a career reboot for the involved parties. The platform emphasized building a community of activists and creators, with revenue likely from subscriptions, donations, and sponsorships.
Lincoln Square appears to be an evolution or rebranding of Resolute Square. On March 18, 2025, Resolute Square announced a formal collaboration with The Lincoln Project to launch Lincoln Square as a joint media hub on Substack, offering “exclusive insights” from political strategists, journalists, and experts via newsletters, podcasts, and analysis. It positions itself as a “ferocious opposition” to autocracy and disinformation, with subscription tiers for premium content (e.g., expert analysis and community access) as a clear revenue model.
Whether these ventures are purely a response to dwindling reserves is debatable but plausible. The Lincoln Project’s fundraising has declined since 2020, and the post-2024 election debt (following heavy ad spending in support of Kamala Harris) indicates pressure. Resolute Square’s 2022 timing aligned with internal scandals that may have hurt donations, while Lincoln Square’s 2025 launch followed the election cycle’s financial drain. Critics, including conservative outlets, have labeled these moves as grift or attempts to sustain operations amid donor fatigue. However, the group frames them as expansions of their mission to build a sustainable pro-democracy media ecosystem, not just stopgap revenue plays. Overall, the pattern suggests diversification to offset PAC-specific funding challenges, especially as political donations can fluctuate with election cycles.
ClaudeAI…
Based on my search, there are indeed signs that the Lincoln Project is facing financial difficulties, though the relationship to their media ventures appears more complex than simply creating revenue streams due to dwindling reserves.
The most concrete evidence of financial troubles comes from recent FEC filings. The Lincoln Project finished 2024 with over $863,000 in unpaid invoices, according to Federal Election Commission documents released in early 2025. This debt includes money owed to various firms for services like compliance, legal work, fundraising, digital advertising, and political strategy consulting.
Regarding their media ventures, the timeline and structure suggest a more nuanced situation:
Resolute Square was launched in November 2022, well before their current debt crisis became apparent. The Lincoln Project and Resolute Square are not linked in any official way, beyond sharing a similar objective and some of the same personnel, according to founders speaking to Axios. Resolute Square was launched by both members of the Lincoln Project as well as ABC News veterans as what they described as “a media enterprise solely dedicated to defending democracy”.
Lincoln Square appears to be a more recent evolution or rebranding effort. Lincoln Square is described as “an ambitious effort between The Lincoln Project & Resolute Square” and operates as a Substack publication.
The organization has also faced ongoing scrutiny over financial practices. It has a history of routing donor funds from its war chest to companies owned by its leaders, including senior adviser Joe Trippi and former GOP strategist Rick Wilson. Recent reporting shows the Lincoln Project paid $2.1 million to Lever Communications, the media agency of Joe Trippi, since January 2024.
While these media ventures could provide additional revenue streams, their launch timeline suggests they weren’t necessarily created as emergency responses to immediate financial distress. However, given the organization’s current debt situation and Trump’s return to office (which could affect their traditional fundraising model), diversifying into subscription-based media platforms may indeed be part of a broader strategy to maintain financial viability in a changed political landscape.
Google Gemini…
Based on publicly available information, there are indicators that suggest The Lincoln Project is facing financial challenges, and the launch of new media ventures like Resolute Square and Lincoln Square could be interpreted as an effort to develop new revenue streams. Here’s a breakdown of the situation:
The Lincoln Project’s Financials
Recent financial data indicates that The Lincoln Project’s spending has outpaced its fundraising. According to data from OpenSecrets, for the 2023-2024 election cycle (as of December 31, 2024), The Lincoln Project had:
- Raised: Approximately $23.8 million
- Spent: Approximately $24.4 million
- Cash on Hand: About $210,000
- Debts: Over $863,000
More recent data from the Federal Election Commission (FEC), covering up to June 30, 2025, shows:
- Cash on Hand: Approximately $284,000
- Debts: Over $862,000
While the organization continues to raise significant funds, this data shows that its expenditures have been slightly higher than its income, and it is carrying a substantial amount of debt.
Historically, The Lincoln Project has also faced scrutiny regarding its financial practices. During the 2020 election cycle, the organization raised nearly $90 million, but reports from the Associated Press and others highlighted that a large portion of these funds were paid to consulting firms owned or managed by the organization’s founders.
Resolute Square and Lincoln Square
The ventures you mentioned, Resolute Square and Lincoln Square, appear to be efforts to diversify the organization’s activities beyond a traditional Political Action Committee (PAC) model.
- Resolute Square: This platform was launched by some of the key figures from The Lincoln Project, including Reed Galen, Rick Wilson, and Stuart Stevens. As the article you linked to suggests, it is a media platform positioned to counter right-wing media. It has been framed by critics as a new vehicle for fundraising as traditional donations to the PAC may be fluctuating.
- Lincoln Square: This appears to be a media hub for news and commentary, likely an evolution or rebranding of the initial Resolute Square concept. The website features articles, podcasts, and videos with a pro-democracy and anti-Trumpism viewpoint, consistent with The Lincoln Project’s messaging.
Are These Ventures a Sign of Financial Trouble?
While it’s not possible to definitively state that The Lincoln Project is in “trouble,” the creation of these new media entities strongly suggests a strategic effort to generate new and more consistent sources of revenue. Here’s why:
- Diversification of Revenue: PAC fundraising can be cyclical and heavily dependent on election cycles and donor sentiment. By creating media platforms, they can generate revenue through subscriptions, advertising, and merchandise, which can be more stable than political donations.
- Audience Engagement: These platforms allow The Lincoln Project to maintain and engage its audience outside of election seasons, which can be crucial for long-term fundraising and influence.
- Financial Pressures: Given that the PAC’s spending has outpaced its income and it is carrying debt, creating new revenue-generating ventures is a logical business decision to ensure financial sustainability.
In conclusion, while The Lincoln Project continues to be a significant player in the political landscape, the financial data, coupled with the launch of Resolute Square and Lincoln Square, points to a strategic pivot. This move is likely intended to address the financial pressures of a post-2020 political environment and to create a more sustainable model for their operations beyond relying solely on political donations.
ChatGPT…
Here’s what the evidence shows:
Background: Resolute Square & Lincoln Square
- In late 2022, key figures from The Lincoln Project—Stuart Stevens, Rick Wilson, Reed Galen, and Joe Trippi—partnered with ABC News veterans to launch a media venture named Resolute Square. It offered a mix of free and paid newsletters, podcasts, livestreams, and articles, with subscription tiers ranging from $60 to $200 per year (Axios, Fox News). Stevens emphasized they weren’t aiming to be a traditional news organization, but rather a platform unabashedly framing itself as “all bias, all the time,” favoring a “bias of democracy” (Fox News, Axios).
- More recently, Lincoln Square has emerged on Substack as a “joint endeavor with The Lincoln Project,” boasting over 442,000 subscribers (Lincoln Square). It appears to be a reimagined or streamlined successor to Resolute Square for news and commentary purposes.
Financial Trouble or Strategic Diversification?
Signs Suggesting Financial Strain
- “Slipping grifter donations”: A satirical commentary from August 2024 criticizes the Lincoln Project for launching Resolute Square amid declining donations, implying that the media outlet was a desperate bid to maintain funding (Novus).
- Past financial controversies: During its 2020 campaign cycle, The Lincoln Project raised large sums—approximately $90 million—but only a fraction (around one-third) went directly to ad spending. The rest flowed to consulting firms linked to its founders, triggering scrutiny over financial priorities and ethical optics (AP News, Vanity Fair, The New Yorker). Later critiques in 2025 noted the group “raised at least $142 million since 2019” but failed to achieve its core mission of stopping Trump or breaking MAGA, suggesting potential misalignment between revenue generated and tangible political impact (Capital Research Center).
These observations—while not conclusive proof—strengthen the case that financial concerns may have driven the pivot toward media ventures.
Strategic Evolution Perspective
- The transition into media via Resolute Square and later Lincoln Square may reflect a broader, more intentional effort to leverage their brand and audience for sustainable revenue. By producing content directly (news, commentary, livestreams), they can potentially sidestep reliance on donations and create recurring income via subscriptions.
- The substantial subscriber base (442K+) for Lincoln Square suggests there is audience demand that could support a media-based strategy, possibly making it more than just a stopgap measure.
Summary & Interpretation
- Yes, the timing and satirical commentary imply that Resolute Square (and by extension Lincoln Square) may have originated in part from a financial crunch or waning donations.
- At the same time, the establishment of these platforms could represent a deliberate pivot toward media monetization—using subscriptions and content creation as a means to achieve financial sustainability.
- While there’s no definitive proof of insolvency, the pattern aligns with organizations adapting to funding challenges by capitalizing on built-in audience reach.
Final Take
It appears likely that The Lincoln Project’s recent media ventures—Resolute Square and now Lincoln Square—are at least partially motivated by financial necessity, seeking new revenue streams as traditional donation methods wane. However, they also may reflect a longer-term strategy to evolve from a donation-reliant Super PAC into a media entity with recurring subscriber support.