This article, written by AI entrepreneur Matt Shumer, warns that artificial intelligence has reached a transformative moment comparable to the early days of COVID-19—something most people still dismiss as overblown, but which is already disrupting knowledge work in profound ways.
Fortune: Something big is happening in AI — and most people will be blindsided
Think back to February 2020.
A few people were talking about a virus spreading overseas. If someone told you they were stockpiling toilet paper you would have thought they’d been spending too much time on a weird corner of the internet. Then, over the course of about three weeks, the entire world changed.
I think we’re in the “this seems overblown” phase of something much, much bigger than Covid.
I’ve spent six years building an AI startup and investing in the space. I live in this world. And I’m writing this for the people in my life who don’t. I keep giving them the polite, cocktail-party version. Because the honest version sounds like I’ve lost my mind. But the gap between what I’ve been saying and what is actually happening has gotten far too big. The people I care about deserve to hear what is coming, even if it sounds crazy.
Core Concept: The Rising Water Analogy
Think of AI advancement like standing in rising floodwater. For years, the water (AI capability) rose slowly around your ankles—noticeable, but manageable. Then, in 2025, new techniques accelerated the rise dramatically. Now the water is at chest level, and most people outside the tech industry haven’t noticed they’re standing in it. Tech workers experienced this flooding first in their own jobs, and they’re warning everyone else: the water is coming for you, too.
What’s Actually Happening Now
AI has crossed a critical threshold where it can complete entire complex projects autonomously. Shumer describes asking AI to build an app, then walking away for four hours—returning to find the AI has written tens of thousands of lines of code, opened and tested the app itself, identified problems, fixed them independently, and only presented the finished product when it met its own quality standards. This isn’t a helpful assistant anymore; it’s doing the entire job better than he would have done it himself.
Most Important Takeaways
The Capability Gap Is Enormous
Most people judge AI based on free versions or experiences from 2023-2024, which are drastically outdated. The paid, current models (like GPT-5.2 and Claude Opus 4.6) represent a fundamentally different capability level—the gap between free and paid versions is like comparing flip phones to modern smartphones.
The Timeline Is Now, Not Later
Dario Amodei, the safety-focused CEO of Anthropic, predicts AI will eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, and many in the industry think that’s conservative. The stock market wiped out $1 trillion in software value in one week this month as investors recognized the disruption coming.
This Automation Is Different
Unlike previous waves that displaced specific skills (factory workers could become office workers), AI improves at everything cognitive simultaneously. Whatever you retrain for, AI is also getting better at that—leaving no obvious “safe” field to retreat into for work done primarily on computers.
Being Early Is Your Advantage
The single biggest competitive advantage right now is understanding and using these tools before your peers do. The person who demonstrates AI-assisted productivity gains today becomes the most valuable employee—but that window closes once everyone catches on.
Recommended Actions
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Pay for premium AI tools ($20/month) and use the most capable models, not defaults
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Spend one hour daily experimenting with AI on actual work tasks, not casual questions
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Push AI into your hardest tasks—if it partially works today, it will work perfectly in six months
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Build financial resilience with savings and reduced debt in case disruption accelerates. Develop adaptability as a skill, since the tools themselves will keep changing rapidly
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Pursue passion projects—AI has eliminated technical and financial barriers to building things
The author emphasizes this isn’t fearmongering, but a warning from someone watching the disruption unfold firsthand in the tech industry, urging readers to prepare before the transformation becomes obvious to everyone.