PJ Media: Iran Withdrawing From Syria Signals That Assad’s Days in Power May Be Numbered
Iran is abandoning its Syrian ally following rapid gains made by Islamist rebel forces, who are now closing in on the capital Damascus.
“Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria’s army itself does not want to fight,” a prominent advisor to the Iranian regime, Mehdi Rahmati, told the New York Times.
“The bottom line,” he said, “is that Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.”
The unspoken reason Iran is leaving Syria is that Israel smashed Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, fatally weakening its ability to carry out operations outside of Lebanon.
Significantly, Iran is pulling out its powerful Quds Force and other Revolutionary Guards units. They see the writing on the wall, and know that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is doomed.
Assad still has his Russian ally, but President Vladimir Putin is extremely unlikely to send ground forces to Syria while he’s heavily engaged in Ukraine. The Russian Air Force can help, but Assad needs boots on the ground to fight the Islamists.
Given the recent developments detailed in the PJ Media report, where Iran is seen pulling out of Syria, signaling a potential end to Assad’s reign, we can speculate on several scenarios if Islamist rebel forces, particularly those led by groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), manage to depose Assad:
Immediate Power Vacuum:
With Assad’s ousting, Syria would face an immediate power vacuum. The central authority would dissipate, potentially leading to a breakdown in civil governance. This could result in a chaotic period where various factions, including Islamist groups, vie for control over different parts of the country.
Fragmentation and Civil War:
The likely scenario is further fracturing of the country along ethnic and sectarian lines. The Alawite community, which has historically supported Assad, might be targeted by Sunni Islamist groups, leading to a new wave of sectarian violence. This could echo the post-Saddam Iraq scenario, where the lack of a unifying government led to civil strife among various groups.
Rise of Islamist Governance:
If HTS or similar groups take control, there’s a high probability of establishing a governance based on strict interpretations of Islamic law. This could mean the imposition of Sharia law, potential human rights abuses, and a clampdown on minorities, women’s rights, and Western cultural influences. Such governance might also aim to extend its influence beyond Syria, posing threats to neighboring countries and possibly reigniting jihadist movements in the region.
Geopolitical Realignments:
The removal of Assad, a key ally of Iran and Russia, would significantly alter regional power dynamics. Iran’s withdrawal would decrease its influence, potentially leading to a power vacuum that other states or non-state actors might fill. Turkey, already involved in Syrian affairs, might attempt to establish a buffer zone or influence in northern Syria to manage the Kurdish threat and refugee issues. However, controlling the Islamist groups could prove challenging, as indicated by posts on X suggesting that Turkey might struggle to manage the ensuing chaos.
International Response and ISIS Resurgence:
The international community would be forced to react, possibly increasing military involvement to prevent the spread of Islamist control or the resurgence of groups like ISIS. There’s a concern, as noted in various analyses, that a weakened state structure could once again provide fertile ground for ISIS or similar terrorist organizations to re-establish themselves. The US and its allies would need to decide between intervention or containment strategies, each with its own set of risks and implications for regional stability.
Update, December 9, 2024:
This is one for the history books https://t.co/jY58WFVbvb
— Mike Benz (@MikeBenzCyber) December 9, 2024
Here is the post referenced in the video. https://t.co/oOxwCO0SO3
— Chris Majchrzak (@chrismyshack) December 9, 2024
Humanitarian and Economic Crisis:
The humanitarian crisis would likely worsen with continued or escalated conflict. Millions might be displaced, exacerbating the refugee crisis in neighboring countries and Europe. The economic situation, already dire, would deteriorate further without a stable government to manage resources or attract international aid effectively.
Potential for Regional Spillover:
The instability could spill over into Lebanon, where Hezbollah, weakened by recent conflicts, might face new threats from reinvigorated Islamist groups in Syria. Lebanon’s fragile political balance could be thrown into disarray, possibly leading to conflict or a reshaping of Lebanon’s political landscape. Similarly, Israel would watch developments closely, considering the implications for its security, especially if Islamist forces gain access to Syrian military assets, including potentially chemical weapons.
In conclusion, the deposition of Assad by Islamist rebels would usher in a period of uncertainty, with the most likely outcomes being increased violence, fragmentation of the state, and a significant shift in regional power dynamics. The international community’s response would be pivotal in shaping whether this scenario leads to a new, albeit unstable, order or descends into a prolonged period of conflict and radicalization.