The prospect of President Joe Biden dropping out of the presidential race would trigger significant political shifts and necessitate swift strategic adjustments by the Democratic Party. Here are some potential scenarios that could unfold:
1. Vice President Kamala Harris Steps In
As the sitting Vice President, Kamala Harris is a natural choice to step in as the Democratic nominee. Her high-profile position and experience make her a strong contender. However, her current approval ratings and previous campaign performance could pose challenges. The party would need to rally quickly to bolster her image and unify support.
Kamala Harris would face several challenges should she step into the presidential race if Joe Biden steps aside. She has struggled with low approval ratings and mixed public perceptions, needing to overcome these to establish herself as a strong, capable leader. As a woman of color, she would break new ground, which could be both an advantage in garnering support from diverse demographics and a hurdle due to intensified scrutiny and opposition.
Assuming the role late in the election cycle would require her to rapidly build and mobilize a robust campaign infrastructure, including a fundraising network and volunteer base. Harris would also need to unify the Democratic Party, securing the support of Biden loyalists and appealing to progressive factions to present a cohesive front against the Republican candidate. This would place her under intense media scrutiny, and any missteps could be magnified, necessitating a disciplined and strategic communication plan.
Generating enthusiasm among voters would be crucial. Harris would need to energize the base, attract undecided voters, and turn out key demographics to secure victory.
If Biden were to relinquish the presidency, Vice President Kamala Harris would automatically become president — but not the Democratic Party’s nominee. Nor would she necessarily be the nominee if Biden withdrew from his re-election bid while he remained in the White House.
She might be politically favored, but party rules give the vice president no major mechanical benefit over other candidates.
Biden’s delegates wouldn’t automatically transfer to Harris, and the convention holds separate votes on nominees for president and vice president. So she would still need to win a majority of delegates at the convention.
If the top of the ticket were vacated after the convention, she would still need to win a majority of votes at the special meeting of the DNC.
That is all, at least, under current party rules. But a vacancy at the top of the ticket is the kind of dramatic moment that might lead party leaders to revisit them in the name of easing the transition. Harris has some close allies in key places at the DNC, including a co-chair of the party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee. But nothing would be likely to happen without a fight.
2. A Contested Primary
Biden’s withdrawal could lead to a contested primary, with multiple candidates vying for the nomination. Potential candidates like Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders might enter the race. This scenario could invigorate the Democratic base but also risk deepening divisions within the party.
The Democratic Party lacks a clear, overwhelmingly popular candidate who could easily take the reins in a contested primary. While there are several notable figures with substantial followings, such as Vice President Kamala Harris, Senator Bernie Sanders, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, each has distinct challenges and factional support within the party. The absence of a dominant candidate could lead to a highly competitive and potentially divisive primary process if President Joe Biden steps aside.
Things would be very different in 2024 if Biden decided to leave the race, although Democrats’ convention will return to Chicago in August.
As we first wrote back in February, if the leading candidate was to drop out of the campaign after most primaries or even during the convention, individual delegates would need to select the party’s nominee on the convention floor (or, potentially, during a virtual roll call).
That would shine a spotlight on the normally niche question of who those actual delegates are. The Democratic Party set a deadline of June 22 for states to select the more than 3,900 delegates – almost all of them currently pledged to Biden – allocated as part of the primary process.
These delegates aren’t just pledged to vote for Biden; they’re also approved by his campaign. So while a majority of convention delegates could decide to pick a new nominee, doing so would require massive defections from the president’s own supporters. It also means that if Biden dropped out of the race, it would largely be Biden backers who would be responsible for picking his replacement.
3. A Dark Horse Candidate
The Democratic Party might consider a less conventional candidate who could bring fresh energy and appeal to a broader electorate. This could be someone like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer or California Governor Gavin Newsom. A new face might attract undecided voters and reinvigorate the campaign, but it also carries the risk of insufficient time for the candidate to build a strong national profile.
There is no rule that a running mate automatically replaces the presidential candidate in the case of a withdrawal. This is why California Governor Gavin Newsom’s name keeps popping up.
The 56-year-old Democrat, a former mayor of San Francisco, has been at the helm of the Golden State — the most populous in the United States — for five years, and has made it a haven for abortion access.
So far, he has steadfastly supported Biden and dismissed talk of replacing him, saying in the wake of Biden’s dreadful debate performance last week against Donald Trump that such “conversations” are “unhelpful to our democracy.”
But Newsom has also made little secret of his own presidential ambitions.
In recent months, he has increased his international travel, run multiple ads touting his record, and invested millions of dollars in a political action committee, fueling speculation that he will run in 2028. So why not 2024?
4. Increased Scrutiny on the Republican Candidate
If Biden drops out, there could be increased scrutiny on the Republican candidate, likely Donald Trump, and their campaign strategies. Democrats might leverage Biden’s withdrawal to refocus the narrative on the Republican candidate’s policies and past actions, aiming to draw a stark contrast.
This would likely be a stale repeat of the main narratives they have already been using … COVID-19 response, questionable economic policies, divisive rhetoric, and policies related to immigration, race relations, LGBTQ+ rights, and foreign policy issues.
Several top Democrats are urging President Biden to alter his strategy ahead of the 2024 election and spend more time attacking former President Trump instead of touting his own policy record.
“He wants the credit, but it’s not working,” one top Democrat told CNN. “He needs to stop.”
Four sources close to the White House who described private conversations with the Biden campaign said the reason for their concern is simple: The president’s policy achievements are not resonating or swaying voters.
5. Impact on Down-Ballot Races
Biden’s departure from the race could significantly affect down-ballot races. Democratic candidates in congressional and local elections might need to adjust their strategies to distance themselves from any potential fallout or to align with the new nominee’s platform. This shift could either energize or demoralize Democratic voters, influencing overall voter turnout.
6. Media and Public Reaction
The media and public reaction to Biden’s withdrawal would play a critical role. Immediate speculation about the reasons behind his decision, coupled with reactions from key political figures, would shape the initial narrative. The Democratic Party’s handling of the transition period would be scrutinized, and their ability to present a united front would be essential in maintaining voter confidence.
If Joe Biden were to depart from the presidential race, the mainstream media might employ several responses to explain his exit and prepare the public for a new Democratic candidate:
Health and Well-being: Emphasizing Biden’s decision as a responsible choice prioritizing his health and ability to serve effectively.
Legacy and Accomplishments:Highlighting his achievements in office, focusing on successful policies and initiatives.
Smooth Transition: Assuring the public of a seamless transition to a new candidate, emphasizing the readiness and capabilities of potential successors.
Unity and Strength:Promoting party unity and the strength of the Democratic bench, showcasing the new candidate’s qualifications and vision for the future.
Public Messaging:Consistently framing the narrative around continuity and stability, reinforcing confidence in the Democratic leadership and its agenda.
These responses would aim to mitigate any negative perceptions and rally support around the new candidate, ensuring a cohesive and optimistic outlook for the Democratic campaign.
7. Potential Shift in Campaign Dynamics
A new Democratic nominee could shift campaign dynamics, influencing policy priorities and campaign messaging. This could present an opportunity to address issues that resonate more with the current political climate and voter concerns, potentially altering the election’s trajectory.
This scenario is plausible but challenging. Here’s why:
Established Narratives: The Democratic Party has built strong narratives around key issues like healthcare, climate change, and social justice. Shifting these priorities significantly could alienate parts of the base.
Unity and Consensus:The new candidate would need to quickly unify various factions within the party, balancing progressive demands with moderate stances to maintain broad appeal.
Public Perception: Voters are already familiar with the current administration’s policies. A new direction could create confusion or skepticism about the party’s consistency and vision.
Campaign Infrastructure:Rapidly building a new campaign strategy and infrastructure is a logistical challenge. Fundraising, staffing, and volunteer mobilization require time and effort.
Media and Opposition: The media and political opponents would scrutinize any shifts, potentially framing them as instability or indecisiveness.
While new policies and messaging could energize some voters and address emerging issues more effectively, maintaining coherence with the party’s existing platform and values is crucial for success.
Conclusion
Joe Biden’s dropping out of the presidential race would create a whirlwind of political activity and uncertainty. The Democratic Party would need to navigate this transition carefully, leveraging the opportunity to present a strong, unified alternative to the Republican nominee. The ultimate impact on the election would depend on the party’s strategic decisions and the new candidate’s ability to galvanize support quickly.
As the sitting Vice President, Kamala Harris is a natural choice to step in as the Democratic nominee. Her high-profile position and experience make her a strong contender. However, her current approval ratings and previous campaign performance could pose challenges. The party would need to rally quickly to bolster her image and unify support.
Several top Democrats are urging President Biden to alter his strategy ahead of the 2024 election and spend more time attacking former President Trump instead of touting his own policy record.
The media and public reaction to Biden’s withdrawal would play a critical role. Immediate speculation about the reasons behind his decision, coupled with reactions from key political figures, would shape the initial narrative. The Democratic Party’s handling of the transition period would be scrutinized, and their ability to present a united front would be essential in maintaining voter confidence.
A new Democratic nominee could shift campaign dynamics, influencing policy priorities and campaign messaging. This could present an opportunity to address issues that resonate more with the current political climate and voter concerns, potentially altering the election’s trajectory.