Claim: Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russia’s powerful Satan II (RS-28 Sarmat) nuclear missiles to be made battle-ready immediately, signaling a significant escalation in tensions.
Documentation and Analysis:
Context:
Recent Developments: Posts on X from today, November 27, 2024, report that Putin has indeed ordered the Satan II missiles to be prepared for combat duty. This action is framed as a response to Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles supplied by the US and UK, which have been used to strike inside Russian territory.
Historical Context: The Satan II, or RS-28 Sarmat, is a liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with the capacity to carry up to 15 nuclear warheads. It’s designed to replace older R-36 ICBMs and has been touted by Putin as a weapon that would make enemies “think twice”. The missile was officially deployed for combat duty in September 2023 but has faced numerous test failures, highlighting ongoing development issues.
Verification:
Official Statements: No direct official statement from the Russian government or the Kremlin specifically confirming this order has been found in the web results. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry has recently warned that the idea of arming Ukraine with nuclear weapons is “insane” and could push the world to “the brink of catastrophe”, which aligns with the narrative of heightened tensions.
Military Context: The timing of this order coincides with reports of increased military activity and a new offensive by Russian forces in Ukraine, particularly in the Donetsk region, suggesting a possible strategic reaction to perceived threats.
Refutation or Nuance:
Military Posturing vs. Actual Threat: It’s crucial to differentiate between military posturing and an actual increase in readiness for nuclear conflict. The order to make Satan II missiles battle-ready could be interpreted as a political statement or an attempt to deter further Western involvement in Ukraine rather than an immediate precursor to nuclear action.
Technical and Logistical Challenges: Given the reported test failures and production issues with the Satan II, the readiness of these missiles might be more aspirational than immediately actionable. This raises questions about how “battle-ready” these systems truly are.
Broader Implications:
International Relations: This move, if confirmed, would be seen as a direct response to NATO and Ukrainian actions, escalating the already tense situation. It could lead to further diplomatic strain or negotiations regarding arms control and security assurances.
Public Perception: The announcement, especially through social media channels, might aim to influence public perception both domestically and internationally, highlighting Russian military capabilities as a deterrent.
Conclusion:
While there are reports suggesting that Putin has ordered the Satan II missiles to be battle-ready, the exact implications of this order remain ambiguous. It could be seen as a strategic move in the ongoing geopolitical chess game with NATO and Ukraine or as a mere display of military might without immediate intent to escalate to nuclear conflict. The lack of direct confirmation from official Russian channels adds a layer of uncertainty, suggesting that this might be more about signaling than actual escalation. However, the potential for miscalculation or misunderstanding in such a high-stakes environment cannot be understated.