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The Shattered Core: Assessing the Damage of Israel and U.S. Bombing on Iran’s Nuclear Program

Posted on June 25, 2025June 26, 2025 by Dennis Robbins

In the predawn hours of June 13, 2025, the Middle East was jolted by the roar of Israeli jets slicing through Iranian airspace, launching Operation Rising Lion—a meticulously orchestrated assault on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Less than ten days later, on June 22, the United States joined the fray with Operation Midnight Hammer, deploying B-2 Spirit stealth bombers and Tomahawk missiles to deliver a punishing blow to three key Iranian nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. These strikes, unprecedented in their scale and coordination, aimed to cripple Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which both Israel and the U.S. claimed were nearing a dangerous threshold. Yet, as the dust settled and satellite images flickered across newsrooms, a cacophony of skepticism emerged from legacy media, with so-called experts questioning the strikes’ effectiveness based on surface-level imagery. This narrative explores the damage inflicted, the strategic implications, and the folly of premature doubt cast by outlets ill-equipped to assess the subterranean devastation.

The Strikes: A Dual Offensive

Operation Rising Lion began with Israel’s preemptive strike, driven by intelligence suggesting Iran was on the cusp of a nuclear breakout. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a televised address, declared the operation targeted “the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program,” hitting Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, alongside key scientists and military commanders. Over 200 aircraft and 330 munitions struck 100 targets, including centrifuge halls, missile sites, and the SPND nuclear project headquarters in Tehran. The Israeli Air Force achieved “full air superiority” over Tehran, a feat that underscored Iran’s weakened defenses after years of attrition against its proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas.

Operation Midnight Hammer escalated the campaign. On June 22, seven B-2 bombers, supported by 125 aircraft, dropped fourteen 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs)—bunker-buster bombs designed to penetrate deeply buried facilities—on Fordow and Natanz. A U.S. submarine fired over two dozen Tomahawk missiles at Isfahan. General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, described the mission as the “largest B-2 operational strike in U.S. history,” noting that initial assessments indicated “extremely severe damage and destruction” to all three sites. President Donald Trump, in a Truth Social post, called the attack “very successful,” claiming the sites were “obliterated.”

The Targets: Iran’s Nuclear Triumvirate

The Fordow Uranium Enrichment Plant, buried 250 feet beneath a mountain near Qom, is Iran’s most fortified nuclear site. Designed to produce highly enriched uranium (HEU), it was a linchpin of the covert Amad Plan to develop weapons-grade material. Natanz, sprawling across 100,000 square meters in Isfahan province, houses thousands of centrifuges for uranium enrichment, including advanced IR-6 models capable of accelerating HEU production. Isfahan’s Nuclear Technology Center, a research hub, supports uranium conversion and hosts laboratories critical to Iran’s nuclear ecosystem.

Israel’s strikes targeted Natanz’s aboveground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP), disrupting power to underground centrifuge halls, potentially destroying delicate machinery. Fordow’s access tunnels were hit, aiming to block entry and trap equipment inside. Isfahan faced drone and missile strikes, damaging research facilities. The U.S. followed with MOPs, designed to penetrate Fordow’s mountain shield and Natanz’s reinforced halls, while Tomahawk missiles razed Isfahan’s surface structures.

Center for Strategic & International Studies: What Operation Midnight Hammer Means for the Future of Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

Despite targeting Natanz and Fordow with B-2 bombers equipped with MOPs, the United States did not deploy these assets against Isfahan. Instead, it appears the United States only attacked Isfahan with Tomahawk cruise missiles. General Caine stated that “a U.S. submarine in the Central Command Area of Responsibility launched more than two dozen Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles against key surface infrastructure targets” at Isfahan. It also appears that the United States struck surface-to-air missile sites in Fordow prior to the B-2 attack. Isfahan may have more robust air defenses, making a B-2 operation more challenging. Alternatively, the targets attacked at Isfahan may not have required deep earth penetration capabilities. Nevertheless, satellite imagery reveals that the Tomahawk strikes at Isfahan dealt significant damage to several buildings at the nuclear complex.

On June 22, officials from the Israeli military told the New York Times that the Fordow nuclear site was substantially damaged, but not destroyed. The officials also indicated that Iran may have moved uranium away from the site before the attack. Regardless of whether the Fordow facility is completely destroyed, it is highly unlikely that enrichment activities will resume at Fordow in the near future.

Iran may have moved nuclear material and any stockpiled uranium out of Fordow in the days prior to the attack. However, Maxar satellite imagery from June 19 shows significant activity at Fordow consistent with defensive measures rather than material transport. This includes 16 dump trucks parked outside the underground tunnel entrances to the centrifuge facility. These dump trucks seem to indicate Iran taking defensive actions prior to the attack. Satellite imagery shows that all six entrances were sealed with rock and sand prior to the U.S. raid.

An additional preventative measure that Iran could have taken is to flood the centrifuge hall with an inert gas to prevent contamination in the event of an attack. Uranium enrichment involves rapidly spinning uranium hexafluoride. When uranium hexafluoride comes into close contact with moisture in the air, it produces the toxic compounds uranyl fluoride and hydrogen fluoride. These compounds are poisonous if inhaled and would make it difficult to restart operations at Fordow.

Damage Assessment: What We Know

Satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies, analyzed by outlets like CBS News, revealed visible damage. At Fordow, images showed two clusters of bomb entry points, grey-blue ash covering the mountainside, and blocked tunnel entrances. Natanz displayed craters from Israeli strikes, with a larger impact from U.S. MOPs. Isfahan’s buildings, including those tied to uranium conversion, were heavily damaged by Tomahawk strikes. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) reported “massive damage” to Natanz’s centrifuge halls, with up to 14,000 centrifuges potentially destroyed, and Fordow’s enrichment capacity “severely disrupted” due to collapsed tunnels and damaged ventilation systems.

However, the true extent of underground damage remains elusive. Fordow’s centrifuge halls, buried deep, are shielded from surface blasts. Natanz’s underground facilities, while less fortified, rely on intricate electrical and cooling systems vulnerable to shockwaves. David Albright, a former IAEA inspector, noted that MOPs could induce “uncontrolled vibration,” a “centrifuge killer” that might render Fordow inoperable for years. The Spectator reported that even partial damage to Fordow’s ventilation could disable the site, as centrifuges require precise environmental controls. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) emphasized that the strikes likely destroyed critical infrastructure—power supplies, cooling systems, and centrifuge cascades—setting Iran’s program back by months, if not years.

Iran’s response was mixed. The Atomic Energy Organization claimed Fordow sustained “limited damage” to entry tunnels, asserting that most enriched uranium was moved to an undisclosed location before the strikes. State media reported no radiation leaks at Natanz or Isfahan, but IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, in a U.N. Security Council briefing, confirmed damage to Natanz’s power supply and strikes on Fordow and Isfahan, though he lacked data on underground impacts. A U.S. intelligence report, cited by The New York Times, estimated a delay of three to eight months in Iran’s nuclear timeline, noting that most of Fordow’s underground halls remained intact.

Isis-Online.org: Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli and U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities

Overall, Israel’s and U.S. attacks have effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment program. It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack.

Complicating any effort to turn weapon-grade uranium into nuclear explosives have been extensive attacks against Iran’s facilities and personnel to make the nuclear weapon itself. Its infrastructure to build the nuclear weapon has been severely damaged. The time Iran would need to build even a non-missile deliverable nuclear weapon has increased significantly.

The Skeptics: Legacy Media’s Misstep

Legacy news outlets, including The New York Times, BBC, and The Washington Post, quickly amplified skepticism from “experts” who questioned the strikes’ efficacy. The Times cited a preliminary U.S. report claiming the attacks “sealed off entrances but did not collapse underground buildings,” suggesting a mere months-long setback. The BBC quoted imagery analyst Stu Ray, who noted that MOPs detonate deep underground, leaving minimal surface blast effects—a point that has been misconstrued as evidence of limited damage. The Post highlighted Iranian claims that Fordow was evacuated, implying the strikes hit empty facilities.

This skepticism is flawed. Satellite imagery, while valuable, cannot capture subterranean damage. MOPs are designed to transmit shockwaves through rock and concrete, destroying fragile centrifuges and infrastructure without collapsing entire facilities. As CSIS noted, “The absence of dramatic surface craters does not equate to ineffective strikes.” Centrifuges, which spin at supersonic speeds, are exquisitely sensitive to vibration, and even partial damage to power or cooling systems can render them inoperable. The ISIS report underscored that Natanz’s centrifuge losses could take years to replace, given Iran’s reliance on domestic manufacturing hampered by sanctions.

Moreover, early media reliance on Iranian statements—such as claims of evacuated sites—ignores Tehran’s history of disinformation. The convoy of trucks seen at Fordow before the strikes, interpreted as moving uranium, could equally suggest Iran believed the site was invulnerable and was consolidating assets there, as ISIS speculated. Legacy outlets’ haste to downplay the strikes, often citing unnamed officials or analysts with limited access to classified data, reflects a bias toward contrarian narratives over nuanced analysis.

Spectator: How the US bombed Iran’s nuclear sites

The B-2 bombers dropped a total of 14 GBU-57 ‘Massive Ordnance Penetrator’ (MOP) bombs against nuclear infrastructure near Fordow and Natanz. The GBU-57 MOP is designed to penetrate deeply into hardened structures before detonating its 2,400 kg explosive filler, maximizing damage against buried targets.

This was necessary, as the Fordow fuel enrichment plant is located around 80 to 90 meters underground and protected by several meters of reinforced concrete. In total, the site was hit by 12 bombs, distributed across six aimpoints.

Satellite imagery suggests these aimpoints were located above former ventilation shafts used by the Iranians when they were building the site, which they later filled in and covered. Despite being filled in, these shafts were likely ‘softer’ targets than the surrounding granite, allowing the bombs to penetrate deeper. Detonating the warheads inside the shafts may also have allowed the shockwave to propagate further, increasing the destructive effect.

The fact that 12 bombs were reportedly dropped on only six aimpoints suggests that the United States ‘double tapped’ each, meaning it launched two successive strikes against individual aimpoints, allowing the bombs to penetrate further by exploiting the tunnel carved by the previous projectile.

Following the strike, US officials and decision makers assessed the Fordow site as severely damaged but not destroyed. This assessment is likely accurate. While the allocated payload was probably insufficient to fully collapse the structure, the highly sensitive centrifuge equipment inside was very likely irreparably damaged by the resulting shockwave and vibration.

In terms of the targeted structures and the resulting damage, the attack was a success and likely achieved the desired levels of destruction. This has probably set back Iran’s nuclear programme by several months to years.

Strategic Implications

The strikes have reshaped the regional calculus. Iran’s nuclear program, a decades-long obsession, has been dealt a significant blow, with Natanz’s centrifuge capacity gutted and Fordow’s operability in question. The loss of key scientists, including Fereydoon Abbasi, and military leaders like IRGC commander Hossein Salami, further weakens Iran’s ability to rebuild. However, the program is not eradicated. Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, reportedly moved before the strikes, remains a threat, and covert facilities could sustain limited enrichment.

Politically, the strikes have bolstered Netanyahu’s domestic standing, with polls showing his highest approval since October 2023. Trump’s involvement, despite initial reluctance, aligns with his hardline stance on Iran, though it risks entangling the U.S. in a broader conflict. Iran’s retaliation—over 520 ballistic missiles fired at Israel, with a 5% impact rate—killed 24 civilians and damaged infrastructure, but its military weakness was laid bare. The CSIS warned that Iran might accelerate its nuclear program in defiance, potentially targeting Gulf oil facilities or exiting the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The Road Ahead

Operations Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer have set Iran’s nuclear ambitions back, likely by years, though not permanently. The strikes’ success lies not in total destruction but in disrupting Iran’s timeline, exposing its vulnerabilities, and deterring immediate escalation. Legacy media’s early skepticism, rooted in superficial imagery and Iranian spin, underestimates the impact of the strikes and misleads the public. As Albright told The Economist, “The U.S. and Israel have shown they can reach Iran’s most fortified sites—Fordow is no longer a sanctuary.”

The world now watches Iran’s next move. Will it double down on its nuclear quest, risking further strikes, or seek a diplomatic off-ramp? For now, the shattered core of Iran’s nuclear program lies in rubble, a testament to the audacity of two nations determined to halt a looming threat.

UPDATE: June 26, 2025

PJ Media: The Legacy Media’s Bogus Iran Narrative Just Got Nuked

For days now, the legacy media has been peddling the laughable narrative that President Trump’s airstrikes on Iran were little more than a fireworks show — loud, dramatic, and ultimately meaningless. Operation Midnight Hammer, the precision B-2 strike that obliterated key components of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, was dismissed by CNN and company as an empty gesture. They even paraded around a conveniently leaked “intelligence report” claiming the mission barely set Iran back a few weeks.

Israeli intelligence confirmed that Iran’s nuclear program was effectively dismantled. And despite the media’s breathless coverage of a vague, low-confidence U.S. intel leak suggesting minimal impact, even Iran’s own foreign ministry admitted their nuclear facilities were “badly damaged” by the U.S. strikes last weekend.

Now, we have even more proof that the strike was successful.

Rafael Grossi, head of the United Nations’ own nuclear watchdog, put the final nail in the coffin of this media myth. “I think the Iranian nuclear program has been set back significantly, significantly,” he said bluntly.

The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) didn’t just rely on vague assessments or anonymous sources. They confirmed “extensive damage at several nuclear sites in Iran, including its uranium conversion and enrichment facilities.” The strikes were so effective that they caused a localized radioactive and chemical release inside the affected facilities.

David Albright, a leading expert from the Institute for Science and International Security, released his own battle damage assessment based on satellite imagery, IAEA reports, and Israeli Defense Forces intelligence. His conclusion? The U.S. and Israeli strikes “effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment program.” Albright said directly, “It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack.”

Now, with the IAEA’s own director general and independent experts confirming the devastating impact of these strikes, the left’s storyline has collapsed. The facts are undeniable: Trump’s operation didn’t just send a message; it delivered a crippling blow to one of the world’s most dangerous regimes.

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Somewhere in the world, there is a defeat for everyone. Some are destroyed by defeat, and some made small and mean by victory. Greatness lives in one who triumphs equally over defeat and victory.

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